Are we in a recession? Not just yet. But we could enter a recession this year if trends don’t change. We gathered quotes from leading financial experts to help break down what’s going on and, more importantly, how you can prepare.
Not sure what a recession is? Read our guide: What is a Recession?
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Is the US in a recession? We asked some experts
We asked two financial experts, CNBC Fast Money contributors Dan Nathan and Guy Adami, if the US is in a recession. Here’s what they said:
“I think it is fair to say that we are not in a recession at the moment. Companies may exhibit strong growth in the second quarter of this year as they may see a material pull forward in demand in front of feared tariffs. For instance, Apple might have a good quarter as consumers rushed to buy iPhones before a threatened 145% tariff on Chinese imported goods.”
“We won’t know if we are in a recession until we have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. By that point, corporate earnings and economic data will reflect an economic downturn if not a recessionary environment.”
– Dan Nathan, MRKT Call Host & CNBC Contributor
MoneyLion’s Take: Dan is saying that we won’t technically enter a recession unless the US economy shrinks consistently for 6 months. The economy shrank 0.3% in the first 3 months of 2025. However, this trend could reverse as people rush to stock up on goods due to impending tariffs.
“I am not an economist, but for 15-20% of our fellow citizens, a recession is something that they have been dealing with for quite some time.”
– Guy Adami, MRKT Call Host & CNBC Contributor
MoneyLion’s Take: Guy is looking at things a bit more broadly. If we define recession as “a time of economic hardship,” then many people may feel as if we’re already there. Housing and rent costs are sky-high. Prices for food staples (like eggs) are high. People are racking up debt. It’s simply getting harder and harder for many Americans to make ends meet.
Is a recession coming?
Financial experts at JP Morgan believe there’s a 60% chance that the US will enter a recession later this year. The analysts cited President Trump’s tariff policies as the driving force behind a potential recession.
JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon doubled down on recessionary expectations in early April, stating, “The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession.” As the leader of America’s largest bank, Jamie Dimon has a unique insight into the state of the economy.
However, the top expert at America’s central bank isn’t as nervous…
At an April meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated, “Despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks, the U.S. economy is still in a solid position. The labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal, but is running a bit above our 2 percent objective.”
Recommended: 10 Key Recession Indicators
What do Americans think?
Most Americans felt worse about the economy in April than they did in March, per a WSJ report citing data from the University of Michigan. This is a sign that Americans are growing increasingly nervous about the economy.
Per the report, Americans are concerned about a handful of issues, including:
- Prices potentially rising
- Incomes potentially falling
- The Trump administration’s seemingly erratic “will he, won’t he” policies
- The mass layoff of federal employees
Why are we going into a recession?
To clarify, there is a 60% chance that the US will enter a recession this year, according to experts at JP Morgan. This still leaves a 40% chance that the US won’t enter a recession. The outcome will likely be correlated with the current administration’s tariff policies.
Understanding the current tariff policy is critical to understanding why we might enter a recession.
We’ve covered this topic in detail in our full guide: Trump Tariffs Explained: Your Complete 2025 Guide. But, here’s the TL:DR of what’s going down economically:
- US companies are now required to pay a tax (known as a tariff) when importing goods from certain countries.
- Many companies will likely raise their prices to offset this tax.
- The end result is that you, the consumer, will likely have to pay a higher price for imported goods.
A study by The Budget Lab at Yale estimates that tariffs could lead to a 2.9% overall increase in prices. This would result in an average of $4,700 in lost purchasing power per household.
For example, companies like Temu, Shein, and Amazon have already started raising prices in response to tariffs. Other companies are adding “tariff surcharges” of between 10% to 40% in anticipation of higher costs.
If companies have higher costs, then it also means they have less cash to pay salaries, hire more employees, or open new offices. This could lead to hiring freezes or layoffs, which would further fuel a recession.
How can you prepare for a recession?
We outlined 7 key strategies to help you prepare for a recession in our guide: How to Prepare Your Budget for Tariff Surcharges. We’d recommend reading the full guide to get a deeper understanding of how you can prepare.
However, the most effective strategy is to keep a sharp eye on your budget. Budgeting is always an important pillar to keeping your finances healthy. But it’s especially important right now.
We’re currently in a period of immense change, where prices are increasing unexpectedly and a little bit randomly (similar to what happened during the Covid-19 pandemic). With things changing so quickly, it’s no longer safe to assume that last month’s budget will work this month. Fortunately, MoneyLion can help reduce the stress of constantly monitoring your budget.
MoneyLion helps make budgeting easy by:
- Syncing your spending against your budget.
- Alerting you when you’re about to reach your budget limits
- Monitoring your spending on a regular basis, in case expenses creep up due to tariffs
Best of all, it’s free and easy to create a MoneyLion account. Join now and take advantage of our free budgeting tool!
I hope that you’ve found this article valuable in learning whether or not we’re in a recession – thanks for reading!
FAQs
Is a recession coming?
There is a 60% chance that we’ll enter a recession by the end of the year, according to one analysis by JP Morgan Chase.
Is the US in a recession?
Not just yet. But we could enter a recession this year if trends don’t change.
How can I prepare for a recession?
A few ways to prepare for a recession include reexamining your budget, making big purchases sooner rather than later, flexing your money-saving muscles, and more.
