I Asked ChatGPT What the Average Social Security Check Might Be When I Retire in 20+ Years
Social Security keeps millions of retirees afloat, and while I’m still a long-ish way away from claiming benefits, it’s never too early to start planning for a decision that will probably determine whether I retire comfortably or work until I’m 80 and then eat cat food until I die.
Unenthused by the prospect of crunching the numbers myself, I asked ChatGPT what the average check will look like in 20 years and beyond.
Here’s what it told me to expect.
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What Will the Average Social Security Check Be in 2046?
The artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot walked me through several potential outcomes, considering variables including inflation and the program’s looming insolvency crisis. It presumed I would claim benefits at the full retirement age of 67 and worked off today’s average check, which it concluded was roughly $2,070 per month, citing sources including Axios and Kiplinger.
The AI chatbot started by projecting a 2% to 3% annual cost of living adjustment (COLA), designed to ensure that benefits keep pace with inflation and settled on 2.5% as “a reasonable long-term assumption ... [Its] rough projection is $3,400 to $3,600 per month or $3,300 to $3,800 in ‘future dollars.’”
However, it cited Congress.gov in warning about what it called “the big wildcard” — the possibility of future benefit cuts, as the trusts that fund the program are on pace to run short around 2034.
ChatGPT offered a caution: “After that, only about 80% of benefits may be payable if nothing changes,” and that the roughly $3,500 monthly benefit payment in 2046 would fall to $2,800 per month.
Then, of course, there’s the dollar-diminishing force of inflation. ChatGPT reminded me that “$3,500 in 2046 will not feel like $3,500 today. In today’s dollars, it’s closer to $2,000 to $2,200 per month.”
Here’s the AI chatbot’s “final answer” on what the average Social Security payment will be in 2046, in its own words.
Best estimate: $3,300 to $3,800 per month
If cuts happen: $2,600 to $3,000 per month
In today’s buying power: Around $2,000 per month
What If I Extend the Timeline to 2050?
Using the same numbers and same calculations, but for a 24-year timeline instead of 20 years, ChatGPT came up with the following analysis, but it warned that the looming trust fund crisis and inflation aren’t the only wildcards — tax law changes could also influence the actual average check.
Best estimate: $3,700 to $4,300 per month
If cuts happen: $3,000 to $3,500 per month
In today’s buying power: $2,100 to $2,300 per month
How About 34 Years From Now in 2060?
Finally, I extended the projection all the way out to 2060 and ChatGPT used the same formula to generate the following prediction for the average Social Security check 34 years from now.
Best estimate: $4,500 to $5,500 per month
If cuts happen: $3,500 to $4,400 per month
In today’s buying power: $2,200 to $2,400 per month
This article was provided by MoneyLion.com for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal or tax advice.
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