Holiday Airfare Is Climbing: Is Waiting To Book Thanksgiving Travel a Mistake?
Who needs a turkey when holiday travelers are already getting carved to the bone?
The price of domestic round-trip airfare for Thanksgiving flights is already running about 31% more than last year, according to Hopper's 2026 Holiday Travel Index. If you haven’t booked a flight yet, there’s a risk of higher fares down the road, with fewer desirable flights.
Be Savvy: 7 Costly Travel Expenses To Avoid on Your Next Trip
Grow Rich: 12 Subtly Genius Things All Wealthy People Do With Their Money — That You Should Do, Too
October trends, however, can be surprising. Historical data suggests the spooky month may still be a good time to book.
October Has Historically Been a Good Time To Book
Buying Thanksgiving airfare in October doesn’t give you a lot of leeway, but it can actually be one of the better times to book. According to Google Flights' analysis of airfare data, domestic Thanksgiving fares are typically their cheapest just 35 days before departure, with the broader lower-price range running from 24 to 59 days before departure.
In 2026, Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 26, meaning most of October, according to the historical Google Flights data, falls within that lower-priced window.
This data is backed up by Kayak, whose 2026 holiday travel analysis found that Thanksgiving fares historically fall from their September highs to lower levels about five weeks before the holiday. If those trends hold up, it means travelers should target the week of Oct. 19 in 2026.
The caveat is that historical patterns are just that — patterns. Past pricing trends offer no guarantees. This is especially true given the unusually expensive starting point in 2026.
This Isn’t a Typical Year
If you feel like holiday airfares are particularly expensive this year, you’re not imagining it. In 2026, Thanksgiving and Christmas airfares reached 10-year highs, according to the Hopper data. So, what might be a “deal” in a relative sense this year may not feel like one if you fly the same holiday route every year.
One of the main culprits is the elevated price of jet fuel, driven up by the war in Iran and the subsequent spike in crude oil prices. So, the main risk of waiting in 2026 is that it just isn’t shaping up like a normal year for holiday airfare.
Travelers who wait too long might instead back their way into a last-minute price increase, which can be substantial. According to Kayak, fares in 2025 jumped by as much as 16% during the week before Thanksgiving and 21% during the actual week of the holiday.
Flexibility Can Still Get You There Cheap
Travel dates can make a significant difference in what you pay, especially when you are planning around a holiday.
The Sunday after Thanksgiving, for example, is a notoriously bad day to fly, as it’s the most popular time for travelers to return home. In 2026, that falls on Nov. 29. Data from Hopper shows that domestic round-trip fares are averaging $604 for itineraries returning that day.
If you have the flexibility to fly the following Monday or Tuesday, you may pay considerably less. The average round trip price drops to about $350, resulting in a potential difference of roughly $250 per ticket.
Departure dates matter too. If you fly on Monday, Nov. 23, you can pay $50 less than the $420 you’d pay on average for a Wednesday departure. Thanksgiving Day round trips are averaging about $371.
These timing changes can be an especially big deal for families buying multiple tickets. Shifting the trip by a day could therefore have a greater financial impact than trying to identify the perfect day to purchase airfare.
Automatic Fare Tracking Can Help
Airfare prices are subject to change at any time. If you don’t want to spend all of your time camped out in front of your computer, you can use automated flight-tracker services such as those offered by Kayak and Google Flights for free. You can set up the parameters of the flights you want to track and receive notifications if prices change.
If it’s mid-to-late October and you still haven’t found the price you want, it could be a gamble to wait any longer. Although history suggests that Thanksgiving flight deals may be more likely in October than September, once the favorable pricing window closes, fares could spike rapidly. At a time when airfares are already more expensive than they have been in years, waiting too long could be a risky proposition.
This article was provided by MoneyLion.com for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal or tax advice.
