Costco Gold Bars: Experts Say They Are Almost a Buy Even as Gold Prices Slide
The price of gold reached an all-time high of $5,589 per ounce on Jan. 28, according to CBS News. It had roughly doubled in price over the 12 months leading up to that date, per GoldPrice.org.
Since then, it has crashed around 27% to $4,078.
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Does that mean you should buy the dip with Costco gold bars? Where do experts foresee the bear market bottoming out?
The Bottom of the Bear Market
Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Research at TD Securities, told Kitco News that he foresees gold bottoming out in the second half of 2026, at around $3,900 an ounce.
“With the Strait of Hormuz disruption eroding inventories to historically low levels, the key risk is that the oversold crude market could stage a sharp rebound,” he told Kitco. “We believe Brent could still move into the $90–110/bbl range, lifting inflation expectations and reinforcing a restrictive policy bias, thereby increasing carry and opportunity costs for gold holders.”
Some gold analysts see the bottom of the market lower. Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading predicted that gold will bottom out between $3,600-$3,700 an ounce, according to GoldSilver.com.
Why Gold Fell Even as Inflation Spiked
Some investors see gold as a hedge against inflation. But while inflation surged since the Iran War began, gold has cratered in value.
While inflation and devaluation of the dollar do drive gold prices higher in the long term, other factors have caused a short-term collapse in gold prices. To begin with, higher inflation expectations have fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, sending Treasury yields higher. That makes Treasury bonds more attractive to investors, compared to gold which pays no yield.
The new Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh has also stated policy goals that reduce gold’s appeal. He intends to tighten monetary policy, reducing the Fed’s balance sheet and effectively shrinking the money supply to strengthen the U.S. dollar, as outlined by the Council on Foreign Relations. A stronger dollar dampens demand, as gold is priced in dollars and overseas buyers must pay more for each ounce as the dollar strengthens.
Long-Term Prognosis for the Yellow Metal
The Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation recently cut its end-of-year forecast for gold from $5,100 to $4,360, according to GoldSilver.com. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted $4,900 an ounce by year end and J.P. Morgan predicted $6,000.
That’s quite the spread and shows that even the best-informed bankers in the world can’t agree on where gold is headed.
Malek from TD Securities sees gold rebounding in the second half of 2026 and recovering above $5,300 an ounce in 2027.
Ultimately, as long as the federal government keeps borrowing money at prodigious rates, it will keep inflating the value of that debt away by reducing the value of the dollar. Gold will rise in the long term as the value of the dollar falls — even if it gyrates like a pinball in the short term.
This article was provided by MoneyLion.com for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal or tax advice.
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