Experts Predict the 2026 Tax Brackets — Who Will Pay More?
The 2026 tax brackets may be wider, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're paying less. While the brackets and standard deduction adjusted for inflation to offset ordinary wage growth, several pieces are shifting in 2026 that could push your bill higher like tightened deduction rules, expiring credits and lower AMT thresholds.
So, we called in the experts to map it out: who's actually going to pay more? The answer might surprise you — it's not just the top earners.
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People Earning More
According to Zachary Sahar, certified public accountant (CPA) and managing director at Capital Tax, taxpayers whose income increased significantly through raises, bonuses, business income or investment gains are among those most likely to owe more.
He said, “If your income grew faster than the inflation adjustment, your tax bill may grow as well."
The annual adjustment is designed to keep cost-of-living raises alone from pushing taxpayers into higher brackets, but it can't fully offset income that outpaces inflation.
High-Income Taxpayers
Here's where it gets tricky: some high earners could face a bigger bill without earning a dime more.
Mande Clark, a partner and tax educator at Bodner & Clark, flagged two major culprits. First, the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) threshold just dropped significantly — from $625,350 to $500,000 for single filers and from $1,252,700 to $1 million for married couples filing jointly.
As she put it, this shift “could trigger AMT exposure for the first time in 2026 without any change in their actual income."
Additionally, high earners in the 37% bracket — those with taxable income above $640,600 (single) or $768,700 (married filing jointly) — face new limits on itemized deductions. That's a surprise cost they weren't planning on.
Marketplace Plan Holders
This one rarely gets the attention it deserves. According to tax attorney, Chad Cummings, "This is a major story for lower income households that just isn’t getting enough airtime."
Households earning above 400% of the federal poverty level will lose their Affordable Care Act premium tax credits in 2026. If you received more assistance upfront than your final income allowed, you'll owe the difference back. For families on tight budgets, this stings.
Homeowners Losing Energy Credits
A home improvement planned around a tax credit could cost more than expected in 2026.
If you were banking on tax credits for energy-efficient home improvements, cancel those plans. The energy credits expired under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Without that anticipated offset, homeowners could see their expected tax relief evaporate. Your rate might not change, but your bill could wind up more than you budgeted for.
The Good News: Most People Won't See Much Change
Don't panic yet. David Perez, founder and CEO of Tax Maverick, offered some perspective: “The short answer is most taxpayers won't pay more because of the 2026 tax brackets themselves."
If you have stable W-2 income, no major life changes and claim the standard deduction, the brackets and deduction increases tracking inflation should offset ordinary wage growth. You'll likely come out roughly even.
Perez also offered a helpful reminder.
“One of the biggest misconceptions is that moving into a higher tax bracket means all of your income is taxed at that higher rate,” he said. “That's simply not how our tax system works. Only the dollars that fall within the higher bracket are taxed at the higher rate.”
The Bottom Line
The 2026 brackets are just the headline. The real story is in the details, and there's still time to act.
Before December hits, Cummings recommended pulling together your projected income, reviewing any credits you might lose, checking your withholding and calculating estimated tax payments if needed. Looking beyond the bracket table can help taxpayers spot a potential balance due while there’s still time to adjust. A few hours now could save you from an unpleasant surprise in April.
This article was provided by MoneyLion.com for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal or tax advice.
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