Americans Are Fleeing These 10 High-Risk Counties Amid Wildfires — 3 Are in California

Wildfire risk appears to be influencing where Americans are putting down roots — or deciding to leave. In fact, a new Redfin analysis found that 10 high-fire-risk counties recorded the nation’s largest net domestic population losses in 2026, with California accounting for three of the top four. This is important, as the findings suggest that in some parts of the country, it’s not just rising insurance costs and limited job opportunities that are muscling people out, but repeated wildfire disasters.

All that said, this is not the national norm – Redfin found roughly two-thirds of the country’s highest-fire-risk counties actually gained more residents than they lost, showing that wildfire danger alone is not always enough to drive people away. In many areas, strong job markets, affordability and proximity to growing cities can outweigh concerns about fire risk.

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The 10 Fire-Prone Counties Losing the Most Residents

Redfin identified the 10 high-fire-risk counties with the largest net domestic losses between July 2024 and July 2025 as follows:

1. Tuolumne County, California (-775 residents)

2. Sutter County, California (-754 residents)

3. Starr County, Texas (-603 residents)

4. Lassen County, California (-502 residents)

5. Summit County, Utah (-445 residents)

6. Taylor County, Florida (-442 residents)

7. Lea County, New Mexico (-386 residents)

8. Elmore County, Idaho (-334 residents)

9. Chaves County, New Mexico (-325 residents)

10. Blaine County, Idaho (-314 residents)

The Hidden Costs of Living in Fire-Prone Areas

Wildfire danger is only part of the story. Per Redfin, the Northern California counties specifically are also facing rising insurance costs, limited housing and job growth, geographic isolation, and the impact of increasingly destructive wildfires.

Those challenges make the cost of remaining in a community all the more complicated. Wildfire risk can affect not just the possibility of property damage, but also the ability to maintain affordable coverage. Tuolumne County, for instance, has one of the nation’s highest homeowners insurance nonrenewal rates due to wildfire risk, while insurance challenges have also added pressure to Lassen County residents.

Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather noted that wildfire risk alone is rarely enough to convince people to leave (after all, many of us live in locations susceptible to earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes and more).

Why Other Fire-Prone Counties Are Still Growing

While the high-risk counties above are losing residents, others are attracting new arrivals. Pinal County, Arizona, gained 21,315 more residents than it lost in 2025, the largest increase among fire-prone counties. Elsewhere, such fire-risk counties as Washington County, Utah and Parker County, Texas also posted significant gains.

Many of these growing counties offer something that struggling rural areas often lack, including access to jobs and affordable housing, and proximity to major metro areas. As an example, Redfin found that nine of the 10 fastest-growing fire-prone counties had median home prices below $600,000.

The Bottom Line

Wildfire risk is becoming part of the financial calculation some Americans make when choosing where to live. That said, recent analysis shows that fire danger alone does not determine whether people move in or out of an area.

Counties facing wildfire risk alongside financial challenges like limited employment and geographic isolation are struggling to retain residents, with ecological disasters simply being a final straw. Meanwhile, areas with similar risk but stronger economies and job markets continue to thrive.

This article was provided by MoneyLion.com for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal or tax advice.