5 Reasons Grocery Inflation May Still Be Getting Worse Later This Year
Grocery prices are still high and some economists say several pressures behind food inflation could continue later this year.
Rising fertilizer and fuel costs, supply chain disruptions and severe weather are still affecting parts of the food industry. Some grocery staples, including beef, coffee and fresh produce, could remain especially vulnerable.
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Here are five reasons grocery inflation may still be getting worse later this year.
Fuel and Fertilizer Costs
Some economists say fertilizer shortages and higher energy costs are still putting pressure on food prices.
Pelin Pekgun, business and analytics professor at Wake Forest University, said some of the pressures behind grocery inflation are tied to global supply disruptions that are still unfolding.
“While ongoing production deficits from the war in Ukraine continue to cap global grain supplies and fertilizer output, recent geopolitical escalations around the Strait of Hormuz have injected a fresh shock into the market, driving up energy costs and triggering global fertilizer shortages,” she said.
Supply Chain Delays
Some grocery price increases do not show up right away.
Pekgun said disruptions can move through the food system in stages before eventually affecting retail prices.
“In today’s complex supply networks, disruptions can quickly propagate through the supply chain,” she said. “First in the form of higher input costs for farmers or short-term inventory shortages and later through pressures on food availability and retail prices.”
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Beef Supply Constraints
Beef prices have already climbed sharply over the past year and prices could keep rising in 2026, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Beef and veal prices were 12.1% higher in March 2026 than they were a year earlier, according to USDA data. The agency also stated that the U.S. cattle herd has been shrinking since 2019, even as consumer demand remains strong.
Some economists do not expect that pressure to ease anytime soon.
“Consumers will likely see continued grocery price increases later this year, particularly in categories like beef, which is facing historic supply constraints due to low U.S. cattle inventories,” Pekgun said.
Imported Goods Cost More
Some grocery categories are especially vulnerable to global disruptions because they rely heavily on imports or long supply chains.
Brandon Parsons, economist at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School, said products like coffee and fresh produce can be affected more quickly by transportation and labor disruptions.
“Products that rely on imported inputs, are exposed to long supply chains or are energy-intensive will be the most affected,” Parsons said. “Beverages like coffee are nearly all imported, so tariffs and transportation cost shocks pass straight to retail.”
Prices Rarely Fall Fast
Even when overall inflation starts to cool, grocery prices do not always come down quickly.
Cody Schuiteboer, president and CEO of Best Interest Financial, said many households are still dealing with the cumulative effect of several years of higher food costs.
“Cooling inflation doesn't mean cheaper groceries, it means the bill rises more slowly from a permanently higher floor,” Schuiteboer said. “The relief households actually feel doesn't come from the inflation rate falling; it comes from incomes finally catching up to a base that already reset.”
Why Grocery Bills Still Feel High
Grocery prices may not suddenly return to what people were paying a few years ago, even if inflation cools later this year.
Economists say many of the pressures affecting food prices have been building for years. That means relief may happen gradually instead of all at once.
Watching weekly sales and seasonal price swings could become more important if prices continue moving unevenly across grocery categories.
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Editor’s note: MoneyLion is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on MoneyLion.com.
This article was provided by MoneyLion.com for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal or tax advice.
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