Here's the Surprising Way Black Friday 2026 Could Benefit From Tariffs
Retailers have been hit on all sides this year by rising costs, from tariffs to inflation to the increasing price of oil, which drives up shipping costs. In response, many companies imported merchandise earlier in the year to minimize these impacts.
This doesn’t mean everything will be cheaper this holiday season. Many costs remain elevated and businesses may have to choose between eating the added expenses themselves or passing them along to consumers.
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Purchasing inventory earlier in the year, however, could give stores more flexibility to offer discounts on Black Friday, which falls on Nov. 27 this year. Here are the surprising ways this flexibility could benefit your holiday shopping this year.
Why the Rush?
Retailers generally begin preparing for the holiday season long before shoppers do. This was particularly true in 2026.
According to a June 29 Reuters report, American retailers moved orders from China forward by four to six weeks to secure merchandise for Black Friday and Christmas before anticipated tariff increases.
The idea was that buying before new tariffs took hold could allow retailers to avoid higher duties on products they knew they’d be selling over the holidays.
The ongoing war in Iran has also taken its toll on oil prices, which have made it more expensive to transport merchandise.
As a result, American ports were busy earlier in the year as they handled an unusually early rush of imported goods. In September, for example, Reuters reported that the Port of Los Angeles handled a record 2.9 million twenty-foot equivalent containers during June, July and August. That was more than the port handled during the COVID-19 shipping boom, which held the previous record.
Could Early Inventory Translate To Black Friday Discounts?
If retailers really did buy their merchandise before the bulk of tariffs and transportation costs took hold, shoppers could potentially benefit from lower prices.
An August report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) indicated that stores that had accelerated shipments were expected to be “well stocked” for the holidays. This can lead to discounts, as retailers generally want to clear out that inventory over the holiday shopping season.
However, there is no guarantee retailers will pass their cost savings along to customers. Each store has to run its business in the most efficient manner possible and for some that might mean maintaining regular prices to offset higher expenses elsewhere in the business.
Why Some Holiday Prices Could Still Rise
Even retailers who imported early didn’t necessarily escape higher prices. Existing tariffs were in place before additional increases kicked in later in the year and storage and inventory management costs could also keep prices higher.
Retailers also adjust prices based on replacement costs, consumer demand and what competitors are charging. Consumer prices can increase even if the merchandise was purchased at a lower cost.
This makes it difficult to predict which items will offer the biggest Black Friday bargains. The NRF projects a 4.2% increase in November and December retail sales compared with 2025 and stores could run one of two ways with this. Some may find room to ease prices in exchange for higher sales, while others might keep prices elevated to protect their profit margins.
How To Tell Whether a Black Friday Deal Is Actually Worth It
Black Friday is the time when most retailers advertise huge discounts and “doorbuster” sales in an attempt to generate more business. But a store promoting a 40% discount could still charge more than other retailers offering the same product at its everyday price.
Price-history tools can help consumers find out if an advertised price, especially one “on sale,” actually represents a genuine reduction.
On Black Friday, it’s also worth paying attention to specific model numbers, especially for electronics. Laptops in particular are notorious for having slightly different specifications from similarly named products sold earlier in the year or at other retailers. This can make true “apples-to-apples” comparisons more difficult, but not impossible.
Early holiday imports could provide shoppers with bargains in the holiday season, but multiple other factors drive pricing decisions made by retailers. Be wary of promotional advertising designed to convince you that a certain price offers true savings. With a little legwork, you can determine for yourself whether you’re actually getting a good deal.
Editor’s note on political coverage: MoneyLion is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories.
This article was provided by MoneyLion.com for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal or tax advice.
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