The Mortgage Stress Index: States Where Homeowners Are Most at Risk

Home ownership is touted as an important traditional milestone and signifies “You and your family have made it.” According to a new MoneyLion study, the typical American family currently would need to earn $20,000 more per year on average in order to comfortably make their mortgage payments.

Americans are finding homeownership increasingly out of reach — a clear example of mortgage stress. It’s not how much you make that keeps you from affording a home, but whether you can still live comfortably and pay the mortgage. You may be current on your home loan but stretched thin for groceries, utilities, transportation and healthcare.

In Massachusetts, for example, where the median household earns more than $103,000 a year, families are still $41,000 short of the income needed to comfortably afford a home. In California, that shortfall climbs to nearly $75,000 a year, or roughly $6,250 per month.

In states where income isn’t as much of a problem, it is a different type of mortgage stress. In Louisiana and Mississippi, delinquency rates are the highest. People are unable to make their payments on time.

For most American households, owning their home, one of the cornerstones of the American Dream, is becomingly harder to achieve.

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Key Findings

• The data may, at first glance, look bleak, but the gap between household income and the income needed for homeownership isn't wide everywhere. In Minnesota, the gap is just $345.

• Hawaii has the most mortgage stress in the nation. The median household income is $100,389, but the income needed to buy a home is $216,442. This means there’s a gap of $116,053, the largest in the nation.

• Mortgage stress is most prevalent in Hawaii, Rhode Island, California, Florida and New Jersey. The income needed to buy a home in these states ranges from $99,314 to $216,442.

• Inexpensive homes don't guarantee no or low stress. Louisiana and Mississippi are in the top 10 of mortgage-stressed states despite average home values near $200,000. These states have the nation's highest mortgage delinquency rates, and some of their lowest median incomes, dragging homeowners into the danger zone.

• In eight of the 10 most stressed states, even a six-figure gap can't be closed by budgeting. When the gap between what you earn and what you'd need runs $25,000 to $116,000 a year, the answer isn't as simple as budgeting. It's relocating, co-buying or waiting.

• Florida is the only state in the top five for both stress and delinquency rates. Modest household incomes of $74,568 are unable to keep up with rising insurance costs and rapidly escalating housing prices.

• Delinquency isn’t necessarily about the price of the home. The states where the most homeowners are behind on payments — Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, New York, Oklahoma — are not the priciest markets. Stretched budgets, not big mortgages, drive the missed payments.

The States Where Homeowners Face the Most Mortgage Stress

MoneyLion’s study analyzed all 50 states to identify where homeowners are stretched the thinnest. The analysis considered the gap between what households earn and what a new buyer needs to comfortably afford a home, how much of a homeowner’s income goes toward mortgage payments and each state’s mortgage delinquency rate.

Here are the key findings:

Locked Out: The States Where a Paycheck Can't Buy a House Anymore

Incomes Grew. Home Prices Exploded.

Incomes may have grown, but that doesn’t necessarily mean salaries have kept up with home prices. Owning a home means more than a mortgage payment — you also need to factor in property taxes, home insurance, repairs and maintenance. When everything’s added up, it’s easy to see how the cost may swallow a bigger slice of homeowners’ income pie than they were expecting.

Nicole Saunches, a realtor with Coastal Properties Group International and Forbes Global Properties, shares what’s happening in Tampa, Florida.

“The pandemic shifted the ways that people could work, and a lot of people, especially business owners, moved to Florida because it was more open and has favorable taxes,” Saunches said. "This migration played a part in the spike in home appreciation because a lot of people who relocated here from a higher-taxed state or a higher-priced area drove prices up by paying cash and paying above the market, thus bringing up the whole market."

For example, Saunches explained, the median home price in St. Petersburg, Florida, in January 2020 was $255,250, and in May 2026, it was $475,000 — an increase of 86%.

"Most people, and certainly employees, didn't see their incomes increase by that pace during that timeframe," she said.

Saunches adds that we can’t ignore interest rates. First-time buyers can’t afford a home because interest rates have increased and “coupled with high inflation, it makes the pinch even more impactful because the cost of everything has risen.”

The Math Stopped Working

Affordability has become the exception rather than the rule. The traditional guideline of spending no more than 30% of your gross income on housing is outdated.

According to MoneyLion’s survey:

• More than 30 out of 50 states exceed the traditional 30% affordability guideline.

• In 10 states, buyers spend 39% to 59% of their income to comfortably afford a home.

• Those states include Hawaii, California, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Nevada, Oregon, Montana, New Jersey, Washington and Connecticut.

In Hawaii, for example, the average monthly mortgage payment is $4,719, which can consume more than half a household’s income. At the other end of the spectrum, homeowners in West Virginia spend just 21.7% of their income on housing, well below the 30% affordability guideline.

People who sell homes are seeing this play out in real time. According to Saunches, “We are seeing people spend more than 50% of their household income on housing and couple that with an increase in interest rates and inflation, and that really puts a financial strain on many Americans.”

Where You Live Decides What You Will Pay

Regional trends tell a similar story:

Midwest

• Seven of the 10 least mortgage-stressed states are located here.

• States include Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, Nebraska and Illinois.

• The region's average income gap is essentially zero, and these are the only states where the math works.

West

• California, Nevada and Hawaii rank among the 10 most mortgage-stressed states.

• Homebuyers are spending at least 41% of their income on housing costs.

• Despite high housing costs, mortgage delinquency rates are relatively low in this region.

Northeast

• Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts all rank among the top 10 mortgage-stressed states.

• Homebuyers spend about 39% of their income on housing.

• The average median income shortfall is around $31,000 in these states.

South

• Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi also place in the top 10.

• These states ranked in the top not because of home prices but because of mortgage delinquency rates.

It’s Not the Paycheck, But the Price Tag

The data suggests that the states with the highest earners also face the most mortgage stress. Massachusetts, California, Hawaii and New Jersey all had median household incomes of $99,000 or more, but house prices also ranged from $579,000 to $832,000. Earning a large paycheck doesn’t insulate you from mortgage stress.

Take Maryland and Massachusetts, for example:

Median Household Income

• Maryland: $103,678

• Massachusetts: $103,960

Median Home Value

• Maryland: $434,033

• Massachusetts: $667,265

Average Monthly Mortgage Payment

• Maryland: $2,461

• Massachusetts: $3,784

Although household incomes are roughly the same, Massachusetts ranks ninth for mortgage stress while Maryland ranks 37th. The cause of the disparity is attributed to how much it costs for a home in Massachusetts vs. Maryland.

How To Buy a Home Without Betting the Whole Paycheck

As a certified financial health counselor, I offer some tips to help you preserve your income and allow you to afford a home.

• You need to budget not only for a mortgage, but also for ownership. According to Saunches, first-time homebuyers don’t consider the cost to move, buy new furniture or keep up with ongoing maintenance. She recommends homeowners “create a dedicated maintenance account funded with 1% of the home's market value annually, plus monthly deposits calculated as (replacement cost ÷ estimated remaining months) for big items like the roof, HVAC and plumbing so when those items need replacing, the funds are already there.”

• Before you decide to apply for a mortgage, pull your credit reports. It’s a good idea to improve your credit as much as you can prior to applying for a mortgage. You want to secure the best interest rate and terms possible.

• Run your own affordability numbers. Don’t necessarily take out a loan for the amount the lender approves. The lender’s approval number is what risk they can afford to take on, but not necessarily what you can afford. Factor in taxes, insurance and estimated maintenance at or under 30% of your gross income. In 31 states, the average buyer already can't hit this amount, which means your budget matters more.

• Do a mortgage dress rehearsal. Pay a fake mortgage for three months. You can still pay your rent, but also factor in how much money you’ll have to add in to make a mortgage payment. This will give you a good idea if you can afford your mortgage payment.

• Don’t forget about first-time buyer perks. You can afford more than you think. There are state and local down payment assistance programs, grants for first-time buyers and reduced-rate programs. Inquire with your state government to find out more.

Methodology

For this study, MoneyLion analyzed all 50 U.S. states to identify where homeowners face the greatest mortgage stress. The analysis combined data from the U.S. Census Bureau's ACS, the Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey, the Zillow Home Value Index and the Federal Reserve Economic Data. To estimate the income needed for comfortable homeownership in each state, MoneyLion combined average household living expenses with estimated mortgage costs based on each state's average single-family home value, assuming a 10% down payment and the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.47% as of May 23, 2026. The analysis also applied the 50/30/20 budgeting guideline, which assumes essential expenses should account for no more than 50% of household income. States were then ranked using three equally weighted factors: the gap between median household income and the income needed to comfortably afford a median-priced home, the new homeowner affordability rate and the mortgage delinquency rate.

All data is current as of June 23, 2026.

Photo credit: Chainarong Prasertthai / iStock